Summary
Supply-Chain Crime · Hardware · Logistics · Source ReviewCargoNet & FBI data · to Aug 2026
Executive summary · one-page brief
More Thefts, Not Fewer
Organised crime has moved into stealing the hardware the AI build-out runs on — enterprise computing gear, networking equipment, and the copper that cools and connects it. Verisk CargoNet puts 2025 losses at nearly $725 million, up 60% on 2024, with the average theft worth $273,990. A widely-read account of this in Fortune reported that thefts were becoming less frequent but more valuable. The primary data says the opposite: confirmed cargo thefts rose 18%, from 2,243 to 2,646. The error is a swapped denominator — an average calculated per confirmed theft, paired with the count of all supply-chain crime events. The FBI, citing the same dataset six weeks earlier, states it correctly.
By the Numbers Verisk CargoNet annual analysis, 22 Jan 2026
- +18%confirmed cargo thefts, 2,243 → 2,646
- $273,990average per confirmed theft, up 36%
- +60%estimated losses, to nearly $725m
- +77%metals theft, driven by copper demand
The Correction
One swapped denominator and the trend reverses
CargoNet counts two different things. Supply-chain crime events — every incident it records — were 3,607 in 2024 and 3,594 in 2025: flat. Confirmed cargo thefts, a subset, went from 2,243 to 2,646: up 18%. The $273,990 average is per confirmed theft, and it reconciles precisely: 2,646 × $273,990 = $724,977,540, the “nearly $725 million” headline. Apply that average to the event count instead and you get about $988m, which is where the appearance of a contradiction comes from. Fortune also gives 2024 incidents as 3,854; CargoNet's release says 3,607, and the origin of 3,854 is not established. None of this is a quibble about rounding. “Incidents decreased” describes flat event volume; the thing actually counted as theft rose sharply. The direction of the trend is the opposite of the one reported.
- $725.0m2,646 confirmed thefts × $273,990 — reconciles
- $988msame average × 3,594 events — the wrong denominator
- 18%rise the FBI's April announcement states plainly
| What CargoNet counts | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply-chain crime events | 3,607 | 3,594 | flat |
| Confirmed cargo thefts | 2,243 | 2,646 | +18% |
| Average value per theft | $202,364 | $273,990 | +36% |
| Estimated losses | ~$454m | ~$725m | +60% |
How It Is Done
The freight is stolen before the truck moves FBI alert I-043026-PSA, 30 April 2026
- 1Compromise the accountA spoofed broker email carries a shortened link — a carrier agreement, or a poor service rating to “resolve”. It leads to a phishing site whose executable installs legitimate remote-management software, giving “total, undetected access”.
- 2Post fake loadsUsing the compromised account they impersonate the broker on load boards, posting fake loads “sometimes in the tens of thousands”. Carriers that bid receive the same malicious agreement and are compromised in turn.
- 3Bid on real loadsPosing as the compromised carrier, they accept real shipments and double-broker them with altered bills of lading and a changed destination — updating the carrier's contact and insurance details with the FMCSA so it can take loads it previously could not.
- 4Take the cargoLoads are cross-docked or transloaded to complicit drivers and redirected. The actors sometimes then contact the broker to demand a ransom for the load's location.
The compromised carrier often learns of it only when brokers ask about freight booked under its authority without its knowledge. CargoNet adds the structural reason these shipments are worth the effort: enterprise computing and networking equipment “may be worth several million dollars but frequently move through the supply chain as conventional dry freight, creating a significant mismatch between their financial value and their ordinary transportation and security profile”. A pallet worth more than the truck carrying it travels with the security of a pallet.
- RAMCargoNet's 2026 outlook names memory modules, storage drives and enterprise gear as expected targets
- 1,218incidents in California, still the most affected state
What Came Next
Fewer incidents, far larger losses CargoNet Q2 2026, published a month after the Fortune piece
| Q2 measure | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Incidents recorded | — | 677 (−26% YoY) |
| Estimated losses | $135.7m | $304.6m |
| Events classified as theft | 488 | 378 |
| Fictitious pickup events | 165 | 158 |
| Metals incidents | 54 | 80 |
Severity, not volume
Q2 2026 losses more than doubled year on year while incidents fell 26%. Keith Lewis of CargoNet: “Lower incident volume should not be mistaken for lower risk. The groups driving the largest losses are not necessarily trying to steal more freight; they are trying to identify the right shipment.” The quarter's $564,009 average is inflated by a few extreme losses and should not be read as a typical theft — the release says so itself.
What nobody has measured
No published figure isolates AI hardware theft. CargoNet names enterprise computing a top-tier target and reports metals up 77%, but publishes no dollar total for data centre equipment. And the “$7 trillion market” framing traces to McKinsey's projection of $6.7 trillion in capital expenditure required by 2030 — money spent building the thing, not the value of the thing.