Side N
Nobody Can Tell You the Odds
Which sources back which section of this article, and what its evidence base looks like.
Which sources back which section
| Section | Sources behind it | Count |
|---|---|---|
| What happened | The 2026 Doomsday Clock statement and the Clock timeline; the Manifold API search; the geopolitical risk index page and its data export; the ACLED Conflict Index; the UN mission’s August report; the 80,000 Hours profile. | 7 sources |
| Timeline | The Clock timeline and the 2026 statement for the settings; ACLED for its publication date; the risk index page for its update cadence; the UN report for its date. | 5 sources |
| The argument | The Manifold search, the ACLED index and the UN report — the three readable instruments whose disagreement the section turns on. | 3 sources |
| What others add | All nine: the three Bulletin pages, the Manifold search, the risk index page and its export, ACLED, the UN report and the 80,000 Hours profile. | 9 sources |
| Conclusion | The 2026 Clock statement, the Manifold search, ACLED and the UN report. It introduces no source the sections above have not already used. | 4 sources |
What the evidence base looks like
- 9Sources used on the page
- 8Read in full; the ninth downloaded but would not open, and no value from it is used
- 6Requests that were refused, five of them for the instruments a reader is most often pointed at
- 0Figures taken from a secondary summary in place of a source that could not be read
| Function | How many | How they were read |
|---|---|---|
| Origin | 4 | Full text — instruments publishing themselves: the Bulletin’s three pages and the risk index’s own page |
| Reference | 2 | Full text — two bodies publishing a counted series with its window stated: ACLED and the UN mission |
| Vendor record | 1 | Full text, via a public API — live market prices with their participant counts |
| Community | 1 | Full text — a research organisation’s published problem profile |
| Retrieved, not parsed | 1 | Downloaded in full and unreadable with the tooling available; no value from it appears on the page |
Reliable
Reliable, but with an interestWorth believing and reliableWeak on both, and used with careHonest, but thin
Worth believing